Month: August 2021

Community

Tester for VP

michaelmccurryphd

Politics is a numbers game.  The quality of data has gone down as folks have learned to avoid or even lie to pollsters.  This time, I am looking at a different set of numbers – basically a thought experiment.  Since my skills set is demography, not political science, the assumptions may be in error and the conclusion not connected with the real world.  That said, here’s the idea. 

It seems inevitable that Biden is on his way out as  president.  Whether he just owns up to his declining mental facilities and resigns, is removed on 25th amendment grounds,  just physically collapses, or is impeached he is well past his “best used by” date.  That means President Kamala Harris and no vice-president.  Anything takes Kamala out and we have President Pelosi. 

Normally there would be a raft full of contenders – but these are not normal times.  The Dem majority in the Senate depends on VP Harris being able to cast a tie breaking vote.  President Harris will not have that ability.  She will have to nominate a vice-president who can be approved by a majority vote in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. 

Nancy Pelosi can whip the House Dems in line to approve just about anything as our new VP.  Right now, the house has 212 repugnants, 220 dims, and 3 vacancies.  The House of Representatives will pretty much approve anyone appointed by Harris – but the Senate is a different story.  Balanced 50-50, with President Harris you won’t have a majority leader and a minority leader any more.  Mitch McConnell’s power increases tremendously in this situation.  That changes the universe of potential vice-presidents.  Someone close to McConnell should share this with him – he’s not on my speed dial, and I am surely not on his.

McConnell could probably arrange 100% support for our next VP if he’s a democrat senator from a state with a republican governor.  Only 7 states have republican governors and democrat senators.  Massachusetts ain’t gonna happen.  Montana can.

That coarse calculation makes Tester’s chance one in six.  Financially, it would be a good deal – a senator’s salary is $174,000 and becoming VP would raise that to $235,100.  What Big Sandy farmer wouldn’t accept a promotion that brought a $60,000 raise?  A 35% raise for the last 3 years before retirement would jack the pension.  My bet is he’d take the gig if it were offered.

I’m not sure what advantages that Vice-President Tester would bring to Montana – but he would have to be better for us than the last four or five VPs have been.  I do believe that a Montana farmer could do more for the nation as Vice-President.  We’re in a spot where it just might happen.  In 2016 the choice was Hillary or Trump.  In 2020 the choice was Trump or Biden.  At least I kind of like Tester – and Bob Brown assures me that he shoots gophers, and is a good shot from prone.  Let’s get ready to lobby – it might just happen. 

Community

You Need to Check the Experts’ Math

michaelmccurryphd

This offers a perspective on covid survival rates, but screws up some simple statistics:

0-1920-4950-6970+
100.000%100.000%100.000%100.000%
-99.997%-99.98%-99.5%-94.6%
0.003%0.02%0.5%5.4%
100% – Survival Rate= Infection Fatality Rate.

It’s official data.  It purports to be from CDC.  The author implies possession of a MD.

The math is screwed up.  By a factor of 100.  I learned the difference between decimals and percentages in the fifth or sixth grade – this isn’t a mistake at a graduate stats level, or even freshman stats. It appears someone releasing official data screwed up.  We need to check the math even on official data.

This site https://lincolnmtcovid.com/ has local numbers – and you can contrast them against the CDC statistics:

The local numbers show some anomalies when we compare and contrast them with CDC statistics.  The Libby area shows a cumulative 1,190 cases (in a population of 9,772  that’s 12.2%).  North County shows 467 cases (in a population of 6,470 that’s 7.2%) and Troy shows 258 cases (in a population of 3,435 that’s 7.5%). 

Lincoln County death rates can’t be contrasted with the CDC percentages – the tyranny of small numbers makes it impossible.  That said, in the 70+ age range that the CDC figures identify as a (corrected) 5.4% infection fatality rate, Lincoln County’s charts show 24 deaths in 311 cases – 7.8% – 44% more fatalities than national statistics.  The 3 deaths in the 50-69 age range, with 557 total cases work out amazingly close to the national 0.5% infection fatality rate.

There’s not enough data for me to infer causality.  It is good to have local data available – and I do wonder why the infection rate is higher in Libby.  Checking the math when you can is a good idea.

Community, Patches' Pieces, Wildlife

Patches Pieces

Sam

Eventually, all critters travel the driveway. Sometimes the game cam even catches them. A daytime appearance of the coyote on the driveway is unusual.  He is traveling the driveway most nights. All sorts of deer use the pond and driveway. I am not sure why it always seems to surprise me that skunks climb stairs.  The game cam caught one on the bridge step. For the last several days a blue heron has been hunting frogs in the pond.  So far no bear sightings on the game cam. But as the apples ripen, I expect we will see them around.

Community

County Fair

Sam

This year’s fair was fun, with activities for young and old alike. Vendors were present, and the food (sold by many local organizations and churches) was excellent. Plenty of raffle tickets were sold (not all for firearms), and folks seemed to be in good spirits.

The exhibits were neat, and some of the produce very impressive. The sunflowers were especially remarkable, with substantial height, thick stems, and enormous heads. Neat wood working and a creative chandelier of hummingbird feeders. The cakes and sundry baked goods in the youth section were quite impressive as well. We have some talented decorators!

As remarkable as the exhibits was the number of names that weren’t present. Perhaps we’ve simply gotten out of the habit of putting things into the fair, but while the talent displayed was impressive, much of our region’s talent was missing. I’d like for next year’s fair to feature more from the many gifted gardeners, crafters, and creatives we have in the community.

Community

War is a Racket

michaelmccurryphd

War is a Racket is a short book (and also a speech) by Smedley Butler that discusses who profits from war.

War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small ‘inside’ group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.”

War Is a Racket - Wikipedia
Community

Have You Two Been Vaccinated?

Sam

In the past couple of weeks, Renata and I have been asked “Have you been vaccinated?” by several different people.  Now I don’t mind saying yes – but I’m not sure that the question really is what it sounds like.  I think the question is “Can we visit your place with certainty that we won’t catch covid?”  Perhaps the question is “Have you been immunized?” 

Vaccinated and immune have two different meanings.  The history of smallpox vaccination shows the differences over a thousand-year timeline.  The first vaccinations recorded are in China, after 1000 CE.  They’d grind up the scabs from someone with smallpox, and blow the dust into your nostrils – along with something like a 2% mortality rate.  Since the death rate from smallpox was about 30%, it seemed like a decent risk.  This practice was variolation, not vaccination.

This development was state of the art until Jennings developed vaccination about 800 years later.   You remember, he took matter from the sores on a cow that had cowpox and injected it into people.  The latin word for cow – vacca – became the root of the word “vaccination.”  Since cowpox wasn’t smallpox, it took the risk of death down to about zero – but the minimal controls of the early 19th century kept the effectiveness down.  Jennings methodology didn’t guarantee the inoculation actually included cowpox.   Even as smallpox was eradicated, the vaccine was only 95% effective – but a 95% effective vaccine wiped out smallpox. 

Life is a game of percentages – the only certainty is death . . . but we don’t know when.  When my colon cancer was diagnosed in May, 2009, the prediction was June, 2012.  The prediction changed when Rick Holm convinced his colleagues to humor me and look at the 2002 chest X-rays.  Just old scars, no new metastasis.  It changed the diagnosis from stage 4 to early stage 3.  All from looking at one 7 year-old X-ray. 

CDC says my two doses of Pfizer should be 84% effective.  Israel’s health ministry rates it at 39%.   Personally, even 39% effective is worth getting the vaccine – I have made a point of getting flu shots that were no more effective.  But the answer to “Have you been vaccinated?” isn’t really a simple yes or no if the question is actually “Have you been immunized?”

I think my friends are happier visiting with the knowledge I’ve been vaccinated, and not knowing the percentage effectiveness.  Vaccinated generally translates to less chance of getting sick – but few vaccines are 100% effective.  The recent infectiousness of this last covid outbreak has demonstrated that vaccination is not synonymous with immunization. 

Community, Meteorology

Blessed Rain

michaelmccurryphd

It isn’t perfect, but it is improving.  My alfalfa seedlings are recovering from the long dry spell – on the other hand the deer are discovering them and trying to graze them down.  NOAA shows this map for soil moisture:

This next map shows precipitation during August – again, it isn’t perfect, but coming out of a drought it shows us on the fringe of recovery – far ahead of southeast Washington down through most of Oregon and California.

It may be too early to say that we dodged the bullet for another month or so – but at least the recent precipitation has moved us to a place where we can dodge. At least the long-term predictions are pretty much back to normal probabilities of precipitation:

Community, Recipes

Using your Zucchini

michaelmccurryphd

As I visit our garden, I remember a time when my driver’s door closed, latched, and didn’t lock.  I went to drive home and found close to a hundred pounds of zucchinis in my back seat.  I kind of sniveled about this experience, and another county agent sent me this recipe:

Zucchini Jam

5 ½ C grated Zucchini 
1 (20 ounce) can crushed Pineapple|
6 C sugar                                            
2 (3 ounce) packages Jello (any flavor)
1 C water          
2 teaspoons lemon juice

Boil zucchini, sugar and water for 6 minutes.  Add lemon juice and pineapple.  Boil for 6 more minutes.  Add 2 packages of Jello, and boil for 6 more minutes.  Pour hot mixture into jars, put on lid and screw band.  Jars will seal without processing if you put the lids on immediately as you pour in the boiling mixture.

Community

Thursday Held Shakespeare in the Park

Sam

Thursday marked another season’s Shakespeare in the Park at the Historical Village.

This year’s visit offered Cymbeline. Cymbeline isn’t the only play available- which play is offered varies by location- the better known play, A Midsummer Night’s Dream, will be occurring in Libby this week.

While Shakespeare in the Park makes due with a much smaller cast than the original plays seem to call for, it stays true to the original spirit. Some adjustments are made; minor characters are consolidated, and names are changed to account for actresses stepping into traditionally male parts.

But the spirit remains, the jokes are made accessible despite the language barrier that Shakespeare presents, and the plays are as enjoyable by the general public as ever.

We’d like to thank Montana Shakespeare in the Parks for the lovely performance, and Sunburst Arts & Education for their part in making it possible.

Community

On the sex lives of bandwing grasshoppers

EntomologistJed

I know that our grasshopper levels are higher than desirable at present, but today I caught one of my favorite types. A bandwing grasshopper, as opposed to their slantface and spurthroat kin (our most economically damaging grasshoppers here tend to be spurthroats).

While beetles aren’t always the most discriminate of lovers… grasshoppers tend to be rather selective in their choice of partners.

Bandwing grasshoppers have showy courtship displays – males fly, preferably into a breeze, staying fairly stationary but bobbing up and down. As they do this, they make clacking noises with their wings (entomologists call them “crepitations“), and show off their bright wing colors. Here’s a great example video of this behavior.

Females come to admire the display and assess the performing male’s suitability as a sperm donor. Males, also attracted by the display, come and join in. After all, if other males are performing here, there must be some females nearby who might be interested in me!

If the performing male(s) are sufficiently impressive, and have the right wing color, and the right clacking sound, an interested female will respond in kind. She’ll fly up, clacking her wings, before landing near a suitable spot for romance.

On the ground she’ll make further investigation of her suitors – someone who looked appealing in the air might not on the ground. If not interested, she’ll hop away, and may raise her hind feet and brandish them threateningly at the suitor.

If, however, her meets her standards, there are a variety of come-hither beckons, which vary from species to species. Common variants include moving the hind legs up or down, to provide better access to the abdomen. There may also be chirping noises, leg-stamping dances, and stroking with antennae.

Mating time varies from less than half an hour to upwards of half a day, depending on the species.

While I know that my fondness for grasshoppers is thought a bit odd, the Judeo-Christian god had a soft spot for them as well. When I see grasshoppers arcing over the fields like breaking waves, I hear the words of Joel in my head, and think of how terrifying the lord’s army of grasshoppers can be. “Σαλπισατε σάλπιγγι ἐν Σιών!”