I noticed a chart of the top ten oil producing countries ( https://blazingcatfur.ca/ )
It says a lot – first that the US is still the largest producer. Increasing the prices will make new wells more likely. Admitted, the current administration has made some reductions in areas to drill, but political administrations can change rapidly. Looking at the numbers, this one can change even faster than experience shows us.
Brazil’s population is a little past 210 million – it isn’t likely that Brazil will be a major exporter. China’s population is so large that they will be importing from Iran and Russia. Iran’s population is around 82 million – their domestic demand, and their oil field’s aged machinery makes them a poor spot to increase production significantly. As I look at population and production, Saudi, Iraq, the Emirates and Kuwait still are the players where domestic use is small enough to make them the decision makers again. Russia has a limited market and the Ukraine invasion problem. A 5 or 6 percent increase in the US and Canada can turn things around. My Talon likes high octane – and it is costing more than ever to fill its tank. I have a hunch that the economic picture is going to increase American production.
Of course, if it doesn’t, the new timing belt and new tires will make the old Yugo practical again.