Trego's Mountain Ear

I got the Covid vaccine as soon as I could.  I think I might have been vaccinated earlier but for the manner in which the local government picked folks to vaccinate – I wasn’t sitting by the phone when the call came in, and that healthy, outdoors behavior put me a couple weeks later than I wanted.

I’m one of the people who was in line for the polio vaccine – and it wasn’t far out of the experimental stage.  A classmate who is with you in kindergarten one day, then gone, and the dread word polio makes for a willingness to step up for vaccination.  As a kid, I didn’t know that the Salk vaccine was only 65% effective against one strain, and about 90% effective against the others.  Multiplication and division were still challenges back then – but I got the vaccine.

I don’t need a perfect vaccine – the vaccine is to improve my odds.  I get flu vaccinations, and the table from CDC https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html shows how that works.   The important part is “Adjusted Overall VE (%)

Table. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness estimates for influenza seasons from 2004-2018

CDC calculates vaccine effectiveness estimates through the U.S. VE Network

Influenza Season	Reference	Study Site(s)	No. of Patients	Adjusted Overall VE (%)	95% CI
2018-19	Flannery 2020	WI, MI, PA, TX, WA	3,254	29	21, 35
2017-18	Rolfes 2019	WI, MI, PA, TX, WA	8,436	38	31, 43
2016-17	Flannery 2019	WI, MI, PA, TX, WA	7410	40	32, 46
2015-16	Jackson 2017	WI, MI, PA, TX, WA	6879	48	41, 55
2014-15	Zimmerman 2016	WI, MI, PA, TX, WA	9311	19	10, 27
2013-14	Gaglani 2016	WI, MI, PA, TX, WA	5999	52	44, 59
2012-13	McLean 2014	WI, MI, PA, TX, WA	6452	49	43, 55
2011-12	Ohmit 2014	WI, MI, PA, TX, WA	4771	47	36, 56
2010-11	Treanor 2011	WI, MI, NY, TN	4757	60	53, 66
2009-10	Griffin 2011	WI, MI, NY, TN	6757	56	23, 75
2008-09	Unpublished	WI, MI, NY, TN	6713	41	30, 50
2007-08	Belongia 2011	WI	1914	37	22, 49
2006-07	Belongia 2009	WI	871	52	22, 70
2005-06	Belongia 2009	WI	346	21	-52, 59
2004-05	Belongia 2009	WI	762	10	-36, 40

The important thing is that, in 15 years of data, the best record the vaccine had was 60% effectiveness.  The worst was down to 10% effectiveness.  If I’m playing blackjack, and I can get a 10% edge, that’s good.  If I can get a 60% edge, that’s great.  I don’t expect a vaccine -particularly one that had a rushed development-  to be 100%.

Smallpox was ended with a vaccine that was about 95% effective – “Effective smallpox vaccines have a vaccinia titer of approximately 108 pock-forming units per mL, and more than 95% of individuals develop a ‘take’ with neutralizing antibodies after primary vaccination. “ It’s worth remembering that it took several centuries to develop that vaccine.

Vaccines are more a statisticians game, or a gambler’s science.  Today’s polio vaccine is about as close to 100% effective as you can get.  The vaccines aren’t magic bullets – but they are better bullets.  It may take a while – but I’m betting the Coronavirus vaccines will become increasingly effective.  The problem is that the scientists are working on better vaccines, and politicians and administrators are working on press releases.