Trego's Mountain Ear

I ran across an article by Nate Silver Biden’s problem is with swing voters, not with his base the other day.  A couple of facts that I picked out seem to differ with the headline:

One, from a Matthew Iglesias quote is that “Trump is winning 97% of those who voted for him 4 years ago . . . Biden is winning only 83% of his 2020 voters with 10% saying they now back Mr. Trump.”

It’s quite a poll result – asking a slightly different question and getting an entirely different answer.  I remember that it just turned March, and that I expect a lot of change between March and November – there is an entire gardening season to go through.  I have a grandson who is just beginning to walk in March – I expect proficiency by November.  Yet that different question sticks in my mind.

Another of Silver’s observations dealt with our political party loyalty –

We’re at a point where only 27% of Americans identify as Democrat, another 27% as Republican, and 43% as independent.  I’m not a good enough pollster to be telling Gallup the questions to ask – but I am interested in the decline of party identification.  Can it be that we’re watching each machine shaft us and beginning to despise both parties?  Perhaps we need a different question: “How poorly does the Democrat/Republican party represent you?”  Millard Fillmore was the last Whig party president – and we may be looking at a need to develop two new parties.

Of course, the presidential election can change with the party conventions in July and August.  I anticipate the Republicans will stay with Trump – but the Democrat National Convention has turned into a Convulsion before.  Click the link, and read Nate Silver.