Trego's Mountain Ear

I read an article that provided an explanation for both the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections.  Instead of looking at poorly informed voters as the folks who determined the election, the author credited folks he called ‘double haters.’

I’m pretty sure he classified me in that category.  In 2016, I marked the ballot for Trump, because Hilary Clinton’s record was so unacceptable to me.  I hoped Trump would be better than Hilary.  Generally speaking, I think my choice was good – both personally and for the nation.

In 2020, there was a political resurrection – Joe Biden came back.  Turned out he was even worse than the 1988 Biden who was wiped out by the Dukakis campaign.  There were a lot of years for Biden to build an unacceptable record for me.  The author I read figured that there were a few more people who hated Trump than hated Biden.

I don’t believe I’m a double hater.  As I look at the candidates, I think my emotion is more disappointment.  In a more perfect world, I would have the opportunity to cast a ballot for – the operative phrase is ‘ballot for’ – a presidential candidate with the political strengths and philosophies that Argentina’s Javier Mielei shows.  My choices in these 3 elections haven’t included anyone worth hating.  Trump, Clinton, Biden, Harris – I live with 2 small dogs.  Occasionally I step out and get something smelly on the sole of my shoe.  I don’t hate it – I just try to scrape it off, then walk through grass until my shoe is clean. 

I have a pollster that keeps calling.  Obviously I fit a demographic group that they need to fill for their research, either how I feel on Tester and Sheehy or Zinke versus Tranel.  This research company has some cheap bastards planning their contact strategy – they use a dialer that calls four or five people at the same time, they talk to the first person to answer, then hang up on the others.  Seems like a sound, cost-saving strategy.  Problem is, caller ID narcs on them – I know who is calling me and hanging up. 

Polling is essentially surveying.  I have conducted more than a few surveys.  You need to be as courteous and charming to the folks you contact as possible.  When caller ID narcs you out as the guy who has telephoned me 5 times with hangups, you really haven’t earned my enthusiastic, or even neutral, cooperation.  That means my best way of avoiding you in the future is to put you out of business.  The way to put a pollster out of business is to provide inaccurate data, so that the projections are in error.

It’s like seeing these polls with a 3 percent margin of error.  It’s simple math:  they need about 800 responses to reflect the population of Montana.  That means that 24 bad responses are the margin of error.  That’s normal – but I can’t be the only guy with caller ID. 

It doesn’t take social organization to make pollsters unreliable – all it takes is a couple dozen curmudgeons who answer the polls with a plan to lie.   And a polling outfit that doesn’t remember caller ID is a polling outfit that won’t be around to bother any of us in the next election.