Trego's Mountain Ear

I’ve seen comments about ‘The Fourth Turning’ and how it is happening now – so I figured that I could read the books while I was laid up with the knee recovering. Neil Howe is identifies as a demographer – but his view is more based on cycles in history than statistics. Still, if he’s right, we’re in a time of great societal change. On the other hand, if his hypothesis is wrong, we’re still in a time of great societal change.

The cycles that Howe sees are 80 to 100 year spans – and starting with the American Revolution, we’ve completed 3 and are moving onto the fourth cycle. On the other hand, three data points does not a theory make. It makes a hypothesis – but it’s the research question and the results that can turn a hypothesis into a theory.

I had hoped for a bit more complete and rounded out theory. Instead, I found a hypothesis, based on the last 500 years, that every 80 to 100 years we get a major social change. It’s hard to say that doesn’t happen – but the transcontinental railroad and telegraph occurred about 160 years ago. The media reminds me that the atomic bomb was 80 years ago. I’ve watched computers go from huge mainframes to cell phones. The jacket blurb calls it a theory – but it looks like a hypothesis to me, and a hypothesis that resists testing.

On the other hand, I watched the Young Sheldon DVDs while I was laid up, and the Lonesome Dove series. I liked Young Sheldon, and Lonesome Dove was an enjoyable repetition. So was Josey Wales. Maybe I should have stuck with entertainment instead of looking for socially relevant research.