Trego's Mountain Ear

I’ve been watching the tales that come out of Iran. First and foremost, I’m glad to be American and in Montana, where the closest political violence is either Portland or Minneapolis. Here, at latitude 48.42.18, the Border trolls are neighbors, and our conversations are brief and courteous. Obviously there’s a difference between Montana nice and Minnesota nice.

The Iranians are people with a problem. In 1979, 98 percent voted to become an Islamic republic. Now some of the folks who voted themselves into the Islamic republic (and a whole lot of their kids and grandkids) want out. Nobody ever explained to them that there are things you can vote your way into, but have to shoot your way out. It looks like the Islamic republic is better at killing Iranians than Israelis.

And I remember the Iranians asking Trump for help. They’re being shot in the streets, and they need rifles on their side – and Americans have learned, after Iraq twice and Afghanistan once, Montgomery’s maxim: “Never fight a land war in Asia.” Iran has a population of 93 million – and we’ve learned how well it worked to invade Afghanistan with 41 million. The problem for the Iranians is that the regime – the Ayatollahs and cronies have all the rifles. A handful of Marines can take the flag back from the World Health Organization in Geneva – but Iran is large enough that the demonstrators will have to grow their own trigger pullers.

If the regime stays, the US Navy can further reduce the country’s available cash. There won’t be any more pallets of cash arriving from Obama. The rial is competing with the Zimbabwe dollar – and the folks in power are grabbing every possible other unit of exchange for themselves. Taking tankers filled with oil is becoming Trump’s trademark. Shutting of the flow of oil dollars (or renminbi yuan) won’t hurt the Iranian middle class – in Dylan’s words “When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose.”

I feel for the Iranian people – the Iranians I’ve met were decent people, but a bit arrogant. I suspect the ones in the street are similar – but they voted themselves into an Islamic Republic, and now have to shoot their way out. And the regime has all the guns.