As I was retiring, the American Community Survey(ACS) was replacing the long-form Census questionnaire. There is merit to the argument that a survey can provide data that is as good as a form that one out of six people fill out – both are, after all, actually surveys. Still, as a rural sociologist whose primary duties were rural demography, I wasn’t comfortable with the American Community Survey results – the sampling size was too small.
Now, I can access data that compiles five years worth of estimates – so here is some data on Rexford, Eureka, Fortine and Trego, by zip code, in two separate five-year conglomerates:
| 2012-2016 | Rexford 59930 | Eureka 59917 | Fortine 59918 | Trego 59934 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Population | 566 | 4,425 | 584 | 562 |
| 5 to 9 | 21 | 282 | 34 | 52 |
| 10 to 14 | 35 | 305 | 22 | 49 |
| Median (Average) Age | 58.0 | 43.6 | 50.7 | 49.2 |
| Per capita income | $22,377 | $18,799 | $21,203 | $25,999 |
| 2015-2019 | Rexford 59930 | Eureka 59917 | Fortine 59918 | Trego 59934 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Population | 658 | 4,769 | 747 | 476 |
| 5 to 9 | – | 532 | 12 | – |
| 10 to 14 | 50 | 216 | 35 | 20 |
| Median (Average) Age | 56.0 | 46.8 | 47.2 | 60.4 |
| Per capita income | $13,438 | $22,867 | $28,753 | $26,671 |
The American Community Survey is a well-conducted survey. The data is correct, in both cases, within the limits of the survey. The small samples, however, can create some large swings and make the data less useful. I have been looking forward to reviewing the Trego data since I was selected to return the ACS survey. Trego’s median age went up 11 years. The population dropped by 15%. The youth population plunged. Meanwhile Fortine incomes increased by 36%, as Rexford plunged into the depths of poverty. All the survey data is correct – but sampling bias, due to the small number of participants, has given us data we can’t use.
I still prefer the old, time-consuming long form results over the ACS.
Trego's Mountain Ear 