I got the Covid vaccine as soon as I could. I think I might have been vaccinated earlier but for the manner in which the local government picked folks to vaccinate – I wasn’t sitting by the phone when the call came in, and that healthy, outdoors behavior put me a couple weeks later than I wanted.
I’m one of the people who was in line for the polio vaccine – and it wasn’t far out of the experimental stage. A classmate who is with you in kindergarten one day, then gone, and the dread word polio makes for a willingness to step up for vaccination. As a kid, I didn’t know that the Salk vaccine was only 65% effective against one strain, and about 90% effective against the others. Multiplication and division were still challenges back then – but I got the vaccine.
I don’t need a perfect vaccine – the vaccine is to improve my odds. I get flu vaccinations, and the table from CDC https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html shows how that works. The important part is “Adjusted Overall VE (%)
Table. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness estimates for influenza seasons from 2004-2018
CDC calculates vaccine effectiveness estimates through the U.S. VE Network
| Influenza Season | Reference | Study Site(s) | No. of Patients | Adjusted Overall VE (%) | 95% CI |
| 2018-19 | Flannery 2020 | WI, MI, PA, TX, WA | 3,254 | 29 | 21, 35 |
| 2017-18 | Rolfes 2019 | WI, MI, PA, TX, WA | 8,436 | 38 | 31, 43 |
| 2016-17 | Flannery 2019 | WI, MI, PA, TX, WA | 7410 | 40 | 32, 46 |
| 2015-16 | Jackson 2017 | WI, MI, PA, TX, WA | 6879 | 48 | 41, 55 |
| 2014-15 | Zimmerman 2016 | WI, MI, PA, TX, WA | 9311 | 19 | 10, 27 |
| 2013-14 | Gaglani 2016 | WI, MI, PA, TX, WA | 5999 | 52 | 44, 59 |
| 2012-13 | McLean 2014 | WI, MI, PA, TX, WA | 6452 | 49 | 43, 55 |
| 2011-12 | Ohmit 2014 | WI, MI, PA, TX, WA | 4771 | 47 | 36, 56 |
| 2010-11 | Treanor 2011 | WI, MI, NY, TN | 4757 | 60 | 53, 66 |
| 2009-10 | Griffin 2011 | WI, MI, NY, TN | 6757 | 56 | 23, 75 |
| 2008-09 | Unpublished | WI, MI, NY, TN | 6713 | 41 | 30, 50 |
| 2007-08 | Belongia 2011 | WI | 1914 | 37 | 22, 49 |
| 2006-07 | Belongia 2009 | WI | 871 | 52 | 22, 70 |
| 2005-06 | Belongia 2009 | WI | 346 | 21 | -52, 59 |
| 2004-05 | Belongia 2009 | WI | 762 | 10 | -36, 40 |
The important thing is that, in 15 years of data, the best record the vaccine had was 60% effectiveness. The worst was down to 10% effectiveness. If I’m playing blackjack, and I can get a 10% edge, that’s good. If I can get a 60% edge, that’s great. I don’t expect a vaccine -particularly one that had a rushed development- to be 100%.
Smallpox was ended with a vaccine that was about 95% effective – “Effective smallpox vaccines have a vaccinia titer of approximately 108 pock-forming units per mL, and more than 95% of individuals develop a ‘take’ with neutralizing antibodies after primary vaccination. “ It’s worth remembering that it took several centuries to develop that vaccine.
Vaccines are more a statisticians game, or a gambler’s science. Today’s polio vaccine is about as close to 100% effective as you can get. The vaccines aren’t magic bullets – but they are better bullets. It may take a while – but I’m betting the Coronavirus vaccines will become increasingly effective. The problem is that the scientists are working on better vaccines, and politicians and administrators are working on press releases.
Trego's Mountain Ear 