Trego's Mountain Ear

Category: A Science for Everyone

• A Science for Everyone Meteorology

  

  Monitoring Snow- the Easy Way

  Times have changed.  In the seventies, I would have been up and out this morning to snowmobile in to Weasel Divide, Stahl Peak, and Grave Creek snow courses, and worked the details out in the evening in a Libby motel room.  Now, I can get the data in my kitchen by clicking a link.

  

  So we’re going into February at 127% of average – 5 ½ inches of water more.  Something interesting happened between 2:00 pm and 3:00 pm on January 27 – the snow depth reported went from 187 inches to 75 inches, while the snow water equivalent stayed the same at 27 inches.  This is why we carried so many spare parts on the back of the old Ski-doo Alpines – one ski up front, two tracks behind, and a small pickup bed behind the seat.  Monitoring equipment needs to be monitored.

  Date	Time PST	Snow Water Equivalent (inches)	Snow Depth (inches)	Snow Density (%)	Precipitation To-Date (inches)	Current Temperature (degrees F)
  01/28/2022	0900	26.9	187.0	14	46.1	18.0
  01/28/2022	0800	26.9	187.0	14	46.1	16.9
  01/28/2022	0700	26.9	187.0	14	46.2	12.4
  01/28/2022	0600	26.9	187.0	14	46.1	12.4
  01/28/2022	0500	26.9	187.0	14	46.1	12.9
  01/28/2022	0400	26.9	187.0	14	46.1	13.1
  01/28/2022	0300	26.9	187.0	14	46.2	15.4
  01/28/2022	0200	26.9	187.0	14	46.2	15.1
  01/28/2022	0100	26.9	187.0	14	46.2	13.3
  01/28/2022	0000	26.9	75.0	36	46.2	14.5
  01/27/2022	2300	26.9	187.0	14	46.2	12.7
  01/27/2022	2200	26.9	75.0	36	46.2	13.5
  01/27/2022	2100	26.9	76.0	35	46.2	13.6
  01/27/2022	2000	26.9	76.0	35	46.2	14.0
  01/27/2022	1900	26.9	76.0	35	46.2	14.2
  01/27/2022	1800	26.9	76.0	35	46.2	13.8
  01/27/2022	1700	27.0	76.0	36	46.2	14.4
  01/27/2022	1600	27.0	75.0	36	46.2	16.7
  01/27/2022	1500	27.0	76.0	36	46.2	18.1
  01/27/2022	1400	27.0	187.0	14	46.2	17.6
  01/27/2022	1300	27.0	187.0	14	46.2	21.4
  01/27/2022	1200	27.0	187.0	14	46.2	18.1
  01/27/2022	1100	26.9	187.0	14	46.2	16.9
  01/27/2022	1000	26.9	187.0	14	46.2

  So what’s in store?  As the chart below shows, there isn’t enough data yet for projecting seasonal precipitation reliably on the first day of February.  Still, with the normal high around 39 inches on the first of May, we need only10 more inches of water to make it, spread over the next 90 days.

  

  If you want more data relative to the upcoming temperature and precipitation projections, NOAA has the official long-lead forecasts available at:  cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  It looks like our temperatures will be a little below normal for March-April-May, leading to a bit slower snow melt.

  

  The precipitation probability is also above average – so things look good for the Spring.

  

  As I look back, it is easy to see how a career starting in snow surveys provided good experience as I moved into demography.  There really isn’t a lot of difference between projecting snow depth and human populations.

  February 1, 2022
• A Science for Everyone Demography

  

  Wells-Barnett Becoming Barbie

  I note that Mattel is making a Barbie doll that honors Ida Wells-Barnett.

  

  They note that she was a journalist, suffragette, and had a role in founding the NAACP – to me, her unusual strength was the use of statistics in her research on lynchings.  She deserves mention in her early role in social research and reliance on statistics.  Still, the article doesn’t include the quote that I find easy to remember:

  

  I’m a Montanan.  My state’s legal tradition begins with vigilantes hanging a crooked sheriff and his minions.  In 1884, Granville Stuart organized another vigilance committee – now known as Stuart’s Stranglers – to end rustling.  In a short time, Stuart’s Stranglers killed at least 20 rustlers, and numbers up to 100 are written in some accounts.  By the end of the Summer, Granville Stuart was president of the Stockman’s Association.  Stuart’s activities, despite the poor record keeping, made 1884 the highest year for lynching white men in the US. (My readings suggest that the first recorded use of the numbers 3-7-77 was by Stuart’s Stranglers and not by the Vigilantes of Montana 20 years earlier)

  Douglas Linder has published the data series Ida Wells started (maintained at Tuskegee) on lynchings by state and race. Clicking the link will give you an idea of how solid the lady’s research was – and how racist it was in some areas.

  I’ll be looking for the Barbie – but I want mine to be holding a lever action Winchester.  She may not have been granted a graduate degree – but her work was important in developing American Sociology.

  January 25, 2022
• A Science for Everyone Community

  

  Why Frost Heaves

  Frost heaves – back when I was teaching engineering uses of soils 40 years ago – were explained by osmosis, compression and fine-grained soil.  So think clay, or even better, glacial silt as your fine-grained soil.  For compression, remember that just ten or fifteen thousand years back there were some thick glaciers on top of our soil.  For osmosis, think of the difference between rain water, or snow melt, and the groundwater with it’s calcium salts under my field.  And glacial silts tend to have a lot of exchangeable ions.

  

  The textbook phrase was “If a fine-grained soil, especially a clay, has been compressed, it will normally take in water upon reduction in compressive loading.  In many cases this intake of water may be attributed to osmosis.  The pore water already in the soil is assumed to move into regions of higher concentration between the particles.  More water is drawn into the soil in this process and gradually the water content of the mass as well as the soil volume are significantly increased. . . It has been observed that under certain conditions, when the ground freezes, the surface of the ground rises.  This is termed frost heaving.  Calculations show that in many cases the amount of heave is far more than can be accounted for by the expansion of water on freezing.  It is therefore assumed that additional water must be drawn into the freezing zone.” p.84, Hough, Basic Soils Engineering 1967

  

  In areas that lack our fine-grained soils, frost heaves aren’t so obvious.  On our roads, the places that once had extreme frost heaves – I remember a particularly bad one that was in front of the Apeland ranch on 93 – were over excavated and the fine materials replaced with sand and gravel – so that osmosis could not occur. 

  January 18, 2022
• Community Meteorology

  

  Ice Pillars

  It’s that time of the year again, or rather the temperature is that low again. Strange pillars of light in the sky? Ice pillars, or light pillars, form under conditions of very cold temperatures.

  

  They are caused by light being reflected by crystals in the atmosphere, and careful observation of them can actually provide some insights about the weather. The source of the reflected light can be anything from the sun to streetlights. Color will vary depending on the light source.

  Since these require very dense, cold air, with many ice crystals, they are common in polar regions.

  January 4, 2022
• Community Meteorology

  

  Measuring Temperature

  There was a meme out a while back, pointing out the differences between Fahrenheit, Celsius, and Kelvin.  Measuring was a challenge in those early days – heck, measuring was a challenge to me after I had completed college classes on the topic.  Somewhere in the Glen Lake Irrigation District files of “as built” projects, my blunder on the Tamboer Siphon may still be recorded – I carefully picked the best spot for an inlet structure, numbered it 0+00 and began surveying.  A couple weeks later, I realized that I needed shots further upstream and had to start using negative numbers to finish the project.  It was a solution, but not an elegant solution.  After the experience, I started at 10+00.  Less mockery occurs when your mistakes aren’t so obvious.

  Anders Celsius made a similar blunder – he set the boiling point of water at 0 degrees and the freezing point at 100 degrees.  Then as he continued his studies, he found that the boiling point of water changes with elevation (atmospheric pressure) while the freezing point of water was independent of both latitude and atmospheric pressure.  After Celsius died, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences noted that Celsius’ successors had reversed the measurements.  It does make more sense to start measuring from something constant.

  

  The amazing thing about the Fahrenheit scale is that it came first.  Without a consistent scale on the thermometer, the extra energy involved in shifting from water to ice (or vice versa) makes precise and accurate measurements somewhere between difficult and impossible.  Fahrenheit chose to set his zero at the point that the reaction between ice, water and ammonium chloride quit working.  Once he had that, and marked his thermometer, he could repeat his experiment and determine that he had a consistent zero, based on a chemical reaction.  His next line was assuming the human body temperature was 100 degrees.  Then he could measure the temperature of ice water.  A bit of refinement, and freezing became 32 degrees, body temperature 96 degrees, and individual degrees could be measured by cutting the difference in half – 32 to 16, 16 to 8, 8 to 4, 4 to 2, and in 5 steps Fahrenheit had the gradations on his thermometer.  In the US we still use his method, though the rest of the world uses the modification of the Celsius system.

  

  William Thompson (Baron Kelvin) came up with the Kelvin scale in 1848 – where zero was based on his calculations of absolute zero.  Thompson’s calculations showed absolute zero at -273 degrees centigrade.  In the following century and a half, his calculations have been corrected to -273.15. 

  All told, it’s kind of humbling to see what these folks could do in the 18th and 19th centuries, without calculators and computers.  Thermometers of sorts were invented long before – but developing a universal measuring scale was long in coming.

  January 4, 2022
• A Science for Everyone Community Meteorology

  Time to Look at Snow

  In the last half of the seventies, the Monday after Christmas was committed.  I would meet Jay Penney at Graves Creek, get into the Snow Survey crummy and then we would measure the snow depth at Weasel Divide, Stahl Peak, and Graves Creek.  It’s so long ago that none of our measurements remain in the 30 year average.  We were the moderns – 440 cc Skidoo Alpines, and clockwork recorders that measured the snow-water equivalents through the month – all we needed to do was wind the clock and pack the chart away.  The guys we followed had done things differently – drive up Burma Road, snowshoe or ski to Weasel Cabin, build a fire, measure the snow course, eat dinner, sleep, hike into Stahl the next morning, measure the snow course, camp in the lookout, hike down, measure Graves Creek, reach the road and drive back into town.

  My work was transitory – duplicating the traditional measurement dates and working with new recorders, battery power, early solar cells, and working with the technology that would make us unnecessary. 

  My work was easier than my predecessors.  I used snowshoes where I couldn’t take a snowmobile.  Today, the remote monitoring is so good that I can click the link, and learn what the snowpack is on Stahl without leaving the warmth of my house.  Try it, you’ll like it.  https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?STAM8

  Date	Time PST	Snow Water Equivalent (inches)	Snow Depth (inches)	Snow Density (%)	Precipitation To-Date (inches)	Current Temperature (degrees F)
  12/27/2021	0900	18.9	67.0	28	36.9	6.6
  12/27/2021	0800	18.9	67.0	28	36.9	7.0
  12/27/2021	0700	18.9	67.0	28	36.9	5.0
  12/27/2021	0600	18.9	67.0	28	36.9	3.0
  12/27/2021	0500	18.9	67.0	28	36.9	3.0
  12/27/2021	0400	18.9	67.0	28	36.9	2.1
  12/27/2021	0300	18.9	67.0	28	36.9	0.9
  12/27/2021	0200	18.9	67.0	28	36.9	4.6
  12/27/2021	0100	18.9	68.0	28	36.9	2.1
  12/27/2021	0000	18.9	68.0	28	36.9	13.6

  Nearly 19 inches of water in 67 inches of snow – 28% density, and warming after a near-zero night.  Of course, this is what would have been the January 1 run, and definitely not the time to announce whether the year was a high or low snowpack.  The next chart replaces the hand-written notes that Jay carried when I started, or that I carried after congestive heart failure took him off fortyfive time – 045 was the code we used for time spent on snow surveys.

  

  26% above the thirty-year median.  It’s a number, but if we use it, we’re projecting from too little data.  Things can change with January and February’s snows – but above the mean is good.  Full soil profiles are good for plant growth and delay the susceptibility to fire.  And the Corps of Engineers paid that fortyfive time to get information to manage the reservoirs.

  The next chart shows the 30 year mean, average and this year’s numbers in the lines – but the shaded area shows the variance.  You may note that by August 1, the snow is always gone, but the chart shows that it has melted off by the first week of June. 

  

  As an old man, it’s good to be able to keep up on the information.  We did haul a lot of equipment in and out on those Alpines to help move toward the automated systems we have today.

  December 28, 2021