"Serving North Lincoln County"
This graph, from 4-30-22 shows that the snowpack on Stahl is still increasing. The upper line on the record suggests that there’s only a week or so left for it to increase. Still, 127% of the long-term average is nice to see.
NOAA has this posted for May-June-July, suggesting we can expect the chances of warmer temperatures and less than normal precipitation coming up.
Times have changed. In the seventies, I would have been up and out this morning to snowmobile in to Weasel Divide, Stahl Peak, and Grave Creek snow courses, and worked the details out in the evening in a Libby motel room. Now, I can get the data in my kitchen by clicking a link.
So we’re going into February at 127% of average – 5 ½ inches of water more. Something interesting happened between 2:00 pm and 3:00 pm on January 27 – the snow depth reported went from 187 inches to 75 inches, while the snow water equivalent stayed the same at 27 inches. This is why we carried so many spare parts on the back of the old Ski-doo Alpines – one ski up front, two tracks behind, and a small pickup bed behind the seat. Monitoring equipment needs to be monitored.
| Date | Time PST | Snow Water Equivalent (inches) | Snow Depth (inches) | Snow Density (%) | Precipitation To-Date (inches) | Current Temperature (degrees F) |
| 01/28/2022 | 0900 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.1 | 18.0 |
| 01/28/2022 | 0800 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.1 | 16.9 |
| 01/28/2022 | 0700 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 | 12.4 |
| 01/28/2022 | 0600 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.1 | 12.4 |
| 01/28/2022 | 0500 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.1 | 12.9 |
| 01/28/2022 | 0400 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.1 | 13.1 |
| 01/28/2022 | 0300 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 | 15.4 |
| 01/28/2022 | 0200 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 | 15.1 |
| 01/28/2022 | 0100 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 | 13.3 |
| 01/28/2022 | 0000 | 26.9 | 75.0 | 36 | 46.2 | 14.5 |
| 01/27/2022 | 2300 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 | 12.7 |
| 01/27/2022 | 2200 | 26.9 | 75.0 | 36 | 46.2 | 13.5 |
| 01/27/2022 | 2100 | 26.9 | 76.0 | 35 | 46.2 | 13.6 |
| 01/27/2022 | 2000 | 26.9 | 76.0 | 35 | 46.2 | 14.0 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1900 | 26.9 | 76.0 | 35 | 46.2 | 14.2 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1800 | 26.9 | 76.0 | 35 | 46.2 | 13.8 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1700 | 27.0 | 76.0 | 36 | 46.2 | 14.4 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1600 | 27.0 | 75.0 | 36 | 46.2 | 16.7 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1500 | 27.0 | 76.0 | 36 | 46.2 | 18.1 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1400 | 27.0 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 | 17.6 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1300 | 27.0 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 | 21.4 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1200 | 27.0 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 | 18.1 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1100 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 | 16.9 |
| 01/27/2022 | 1000 | 26.9 | 187.0 | 14 | 46.2 |
So what’s in store? As the chart below shows, there isn’t enough data yet for projecting seasonal precipitation reliably on the first day of February. Still, with the normal high around 39 inches on the first of May, we need only10 more inches of water to make it, spread over the next 90 days.
If you want more data relative to the upcoming temperature and precipitation projections, NOAA has the official long-lead forecasts available at: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
It looks like our temperatures will be a little below normal for March-April-May, leading to a bit slower snow melt.
The precipitation probability is also above average – so things look good for the Spring.
As I look back, it is easy to see how a career starting in snow surveys provided good experience as I moved into demography. There really isn’t a lot of difference between projecting snow depth and human populations.
In the last half of the seventies, the Monday after Christmas was committed. I would meet Jay Penney at Graves Creek, get into the Snow Survey crummy and then we would measure the snow depth at Weasel Divide, Stahl Peak, and Graves Creek. It’s so long ago that none of our measurements remain in the 30 year average. We were the moderns – 440 cc Skidoo Alpines, and clockwork recorders that measured the snow-water equivalents through the month – all we needed to do was wind the clock and pack the chart away. The guys we followed had done things differently – drive up Burma Road, snowshoe or ski to Weasel Cabin, build a fire, measure the snow course, eat dinner, sleep, hike into Stahl the next morning, measure the snow course, camp in the lookout, hike down, measure Graves Creek, reach the road and drive back into town.
My work was transitory – duplicating the traditional measurement dates and working with new recorders, battery power, early solar cells, and working with the technology that would make us unnecessary.
My work was easier than my predecessors. I used snowshoes where I couldn’t take a snowmobile. Today, the remote monitoring is so good that I can click the link, and learn what the snowpack is on Stahl without leaving the warmth of my house. Try it, you’ll like it. https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?STAM8
| Date | Time PST | Snow Water Equivalent (inches) | Snow Depth (inches) | Snow Density (%) | Precipitation To-Date (inches) | Current Temperature (degrees F) |
| 12/27/2021 | 0900 | 18.9 | 67.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 6.6 |
| 12/27/2021 | 0800 | 18.9 | 67.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 7.0 |
| 12/27/2021 | 0700 | 18.9 | 67.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 5.0 |
| 12/27/2021 | 0600 | 18.9 | 67.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 3.0 |
| 12/27/2021 | 0500 | 18.9 | 67.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 3.0 |
| 12/27/2021 | 0400 | 18.9 | 67.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 2.1 |
| 12/27/2021 | 0300 | 18.9 | 67.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 0.9 |
| 12/27/2021 | 0200 | 18.9 | 67.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 4.6 |
| 12/27/2021 | 0100 | 18.9 | 68.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 2.1 |
| 12/27/2021 | 0000 | 18.9 | 68.0 | 28 | 36.9 | 13.6 |
Nearly 19 inches of water in 67 inches of snow – 28% density, and warming after a near-zero night. Of course, this is what would have been the January 1 run, and definitely not the time to announce whether the year was a high or low snowpack. The next chart replaces the hand-written notes that Jay carried when I started, or that I carried after congestive heart failure took him off fortyfive time – 045 was the code we used for time spent on snow surveys.
26% above the thirty-year median. It’s a number, but if we use it, we’re projecting from too little data. Things can change with January and February’s snows – but above the mean is good. Full soil profiles are good for plant growth and delay the susceptibility to fire. And the Corps of Engineers paid that fortyfive time to get information to manage the reservoirs.
The next chart shows the 30 year mean, average and this year’s numbers in the lines – but the shaded area shows the variance. You may note that by August 1, the snow is always gone, but the chart shows that it has melted off by the first week of June.
As an old man, it’s good to be able to keep up on the information. We did haul a lot of equipment in and out on those Alpines to help move toward the automated systems we have today.
The long-term average for snow surveys were dated for the first of the month when I started measuring snow 45 years ago. The old guys did it the hard way – up Burma Road early, skis or snowshoes to the Weasel Cabin, build a fire, sample the snow course, then overnight. The next day they would head down the creek, then climb Stahl, build a fire, sample the snow course, then hike out the next morning, sample the course at Grave Creek, hike the rest of the way out and finish the job driving the pickup out. As a modern, I drove a snowmobile and did 3 snow courses in a day. Now I click a link on the home computer, and can look at the whole basin’s information in minutes.
The numbers from March 1 were kind of sacred – there had been enough winter that Jay Penney felt safe projecting the data – enough was in that he would comment that the snowpack was light, normal or heavy.
These are some of the snow courses I measured in those middle days, when we thought a snowmobile was absolutely modern, and were experimenting with measuring snow water at Noisy Basin with a radioactive source and receiver. We were state of the art back then.
| Elevation | Water Equivalent | Percent of Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield Mountain | 5600 feet | 13.1 inches | 88% |
| Hawkins Lake | 6450 feet | 18.9 inches | 94% |
| Garver Creek | 4250 feet | 8.4 inches | 101% |
| Stahl Peak | 6030 feet | 24.4 inches | 86% |
| Grave Creek | 4300 feet | 13.1 inches | 87% |
| Poorman Creek | 5100 feet | 29.4 inches | 95% |
| Bear Mountain | 5400 feet | 45.6 inches | 87% |
| Hand Creek | 5035 feet | 9.2 inches | 102% |
| Noisy Basin | 6040 feet | 31.5 inches | 106% |
45 years ago, it took a week’s effort on a Ski-doo Alpine to get the data I can download in 10 minutes. We were high-tech then – two tracks and a single ski on each snow machine, and clockwork powering the recorders that kept track of the water equivalent setting on the snow pillow. Now there are fewer stations – and the missing Bald Eagle Peak data reminds me of the winter climbs up the mountain, carrying the heavy sampling tubes, on snowshoes. Probably the hardest work of all, and that data collection no longer maintained.
The simple description of the snowpack is that it is a bit lower than average, but next month will provide enough data for the NRCS hydrologist to start projecting data. We always tried to have the measurements done for the first of the month, so I looked on January 31. The ten-minute download from the places I once spent the better part of a week getting to is:
| Water Equivalent | Percent of Average | |
|---|---|---|
| Banfield Mountain | 10.4 inches | 87% |
| Hawkins Lake | 15.5 inches | 96% |
| Garver Creek | 7.1 inches | 103% |
| Stahl Peak | 20.7 inches | 89% |
| Grave Creek | 8.6 inches | 81% |
| Poorman Creek | 17.1 inches | 75% |
| Bear Mountain | 30.2 inches | 82% |
| Hand Creek | 6.0 inches | 81% |
| Noisy Basin | 23.0 inches | 90% |
To get to the data – and the map – you just click https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/ . It also provides elevations of the sites so you can get a great idea of how the winter snow is up high. Making the data so readily available makes hydrology a science for everyone.
Trego's Mountain Ear 