Trego's Mountain Ear

"Serving North Lincoln County"

Tag: Demography

  • Polling Responses over Time

    Polling response rates also affect polling results.  As State Demographer in a rural state (South Dakota), changes in how the Census obtained and disseminated data made us increasingly dependent on the American Community Survey.  It was definitely more current than the decennial census – but the small numbers of participants made it less reliable.  Deborah Griffin, in “Measuring Survey Nonresponse by Race and Ethnicity” concluded: “The data suggest that special efforts are needed to address differential survey response rates – to increase the rates for areas with high concentrations of AIANs, Blacks and Hispanics . . . New methods to address low mail response must be developed.”

    On February 27, 2019, PEW published “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline.”  The critical part of the article is shown in the graph below – in 1997, the response rate was 36%, twenty years later it was 6%.  Kind of makes polling more difficult – particularly when you project the decline down to 2020.

    On 10/26, PEW published “What the 2020 electorate looks like by party, race and ethnicity, age, education and religion” and said, “Around a third of registered voters in the U.S. (34%) identify as independents, while 33% identify as Democrats and 29% identify as Republicans, according to a Center analysis of Americans’ partisan identification based on surveys of more than 12,000 registered voters in 2018 and 2019.”   Contrast that with Gallup’s findings.

    In 2013, the Research Council of Norway published, “Fewer Willing to Participate in Surveys.”  The most relevant observation to political polling is “In general, NSD sees that young, single men living in urban areas are the least likely to respond, while older women are the most willing.” 

    Polling accuracy depends on random selection.  As the proportion of respondents becomes smaller, the quality of randomness declines.  Causation is not proven by correlation, it must be inferred.  My inference is that the middle has stopped responding to polls – pollsters are getting responses from the same ideologically extreme friends who post political memes, and not from the center.  When 94% of those surveyed do not respond, we’re looking at some extreme nonresponse bias.

  • If LCHS District were a County

    After the article on searching Lincoln County data, the question came in: “What if North Lincoln County was its own county?”  The answer is available, but it takes the sort of personality that enjoys digging through data.  Here’s a few facts that would describe the thought experiment that would be county 57.

    County 57, sharing boundaries with the Lincoln County High School District, would rank 31st in population of Montana’s 57 counties (6,260 residents).  The remainder of Lincoln County would drop from the tenth largest population (19,980) to twelfth (12,694 residents). Data from 2010 Census and, of course, will likely change with completion of the 2020 Census. 

    Looking at market and taxable valuations we find that High School District 13 (LCHS) has a market value set at $1,202,098,056 and taxable valuation set at $17,042,130.  By my count, and this is the type of sort where it is easy to miss something, County 57 would have market and taxable valuations larger than 17 Montana counties. 

    The same source shows that Lincoln County’s market valuation is $2,741,812,498 and taxable valuation is $37,491,358.  44 Montana counties show lower market values than Lincoln County – not a great variance from the population rank.  County 57 would be 22nd in market valuation.  The remainder of County 56 – consisting of Troy and Libby High School districts, would be 21st.

    A more detailed study might include roads, total area, access to county services and a number of other items.  For a simple, “what if” analysis, looking at population and market value seems adequate.

  • Why Complete the Census

    The Decennial Census is mandated in the Constitution for a single purpose – to apportion Congressional Representation according to population.  It’s important to Montana – and looking at just Montana, Wyoming, and California shows the math – Wyoming has the lowest population (547,637 in 2010), California the largest (37,253,956 in 2010) and Montana’s 2010 population was 989,415.  Montana and Wyoming each have a single Representative in Congress, so in Montana one Congresscritter represents almost a million people, while Wyoming’s 547,637 inhabitants each have nearly twice the personal congressional clout of a Montanan.

    California’s 37 million people are represented by 53 congresscritters – roughly one per 703,000 Californians.  So each Californian has a little less than a third more congressional clout than a Montanan. 

    We don’t know what population will get Montana 2 members of Congress.  We do know that Rhode Island has 2 – and we know the 2010 population of Rhode Island was 1,052,567.  And that is just 63,000 more than Montana showed at the last Census.

    Filling out the form is a good idea.

    -Mike