Demography

Vaccination by the Pyramid

The term “population pyramid” goes back to a time when plotting populations by age really did produce a triangle, with a large base of young people and each older age cohort narrowing, until there were very few at the top.  As diseases became more controlled, and birth control entered the picture, the population pyramids changed shape,  The pyramid below is for the US in 2010.

(Data from http://www.proximityone.com/chartgraphics.htm )

Now, if we look at covid death rates by age cohort, Florida’s governor released survival rates back in September:

The numbers for the age cohorts are below – no need to extrapolate from the bars in the pyramid.  We’ll just take the complement of the survival rates, assume the vaccine is 100% effective, and calculate the potential lives saved in each cohort.

AgePopulationDeath RateLives Saved by Vaccination
70+22.8 million5.4%1,502,967
50-6985.8 million0.5%429,045
20-49127.5 million0.02%2,550
0-1983.3 million0.003%250
The Death Rate is 100% minus the survival rate for each age group. Lives Saved by Vaccination is the population of the age group multiplied by the death rate.

If everyone over the age of 70 were vaccinated (and the vaccine worked perfectly) 1,502,967 Lives would be saved. If everyone under the age of 20 were vaccinated, 250.

No editorializing here – just simple addition and multiplication with data from the census.  I know where I would put the first vaccinations if I had a limited supply.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s