As you look at the chart below, the message is obvious – the US Birth Rate continues to exceed the death rate. Sure, we have smaller families, and we’ve dropped below that 2.07 births per woman that maintains a population – but the projections of more deaths than births aren’t coming into effect for another 15 years.
China has already crossed the line – this chart shows when it happened.
Demographic Transition Theory describes how we went from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as economic development, education and technology increased – first with a lower death rate as medical science moved ahead, then later into the lower birth rates. The transition has only been going on for a couple of centuries, so the next couple of centuries will show how things continue. Right now, the smart money is being placed on population decline. At 76, I’m fairly certain my personal population will decline in the near future – but one of the simpler concepts is that the future will belong to those who are there. We may see a change and a new model come into being.
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