In the course of several sociology classes, I would introduce the thought that the nation state may just be a fad we are going through. The idea, when you spend a few minutes thinking about it, is uncomfortable – as it should be. There is a reason why the fall of Rome marks the beginning of the Dark Ages.
So I’m watching the movement for an independent Alberta, disconnected from Canada, with a scholar’s interest. My first conclusion is that Canada is held together by money – and Alberta is, and has long been, the source of money that holds the Provinces together. If Albertans sign the proposition and vote for independence, that premise will be supported. If they vote to stay with Canada, it will demonstrate that the sense of being Canadian is greater than the economic cost of being Canadian.
Looking north has convinced me that Canada, as a nation, is fragile. Over 80 percent of its energy comes from Alberta. Add in Saskatchewan, and the percentage goes up to something like 95%. Then there is the redistribution of wealth, basically from Alberta to Ottawa, and then to the eastern provinces.
It seems likely that the Free Alberta folks will get enough signatures, and that Alberta will have its independence referendum in November. Then we see the answer about Canadian identity versus a lower cost, higher potential income Alberta identity. If over half of Albertans vote to maintain Canada, the nation continues – but if the election goes for an independent Alberta, Canada is toast.
I can’t project the order of events, but I can project these events. If Alberta goes independent, Quebec will also split off. In 1995, 50.6% of Quebec voters voted to stay in Canada. Take away the Alberta funds, and Quebec will vote to separate. I can’t say when, but I can say will.
Saskatchewan, alongside Alberta, will read the writing on the wall – with the cash cow that was Alberta gone, Saskatchewan becomes the cash dairy goat. Leaving Canada to join with Alberta is that province’s rational decision.
British Columbia will have to look at the reality of becoming cut off from the rest of Canada. Votes from Vancouver and the coast will keep the province connected – but a later movement and vote will split the urban coastal BC folk from rural BC.
The Maratime Provinces will be stuck with fishing and a declining tourism industry without the transfer of cash from Alberta.
I’ve watched the Kurds maintain a nation without a state – and my guess is that they could keep a nation state going without an economy but I don’t see Canada as that connected. And that gets me thinking – how United will our states remain when the economy eventually tanks? As I look at the dollar’s devaluation – a century ago, twenty dollars was an ounce of gold – today it’s $5,000 an ounce – and you can do the math as well as I. As I look at the devalued dollar and the national debt, the only thing I can see that can preserve the dollar is the sale of public lands.
What if the nation-state is just a fad, and we’re beginning to see that fad ending?
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