Trego's Mountain Ear

"Serving North Lincoln County"

The Archive

  • I watched the whole thing – he makes a good presentation.

  • Thinking On Iran

    I was young when the ayatollahs took Iran from the Shah. He was a sick man, and he ruled through the secret police – Savak, I think they were called, though I don’t recall what the word meant or the letters stood for. I’ve been surprised that his son, Reza Pahlavi (the second, or junior, or whatever way they have of telling father from son when they share the same name in Iran) has managed to become a contender for the throne. The Savak dudes were pretty rough, and there’s a long association between the Savak and the Pahlavi family. The other contender is Maryam Rajavi and the People’s Mujahedin. Since neither Reza nor Maryam is an ayatollah or a mullah, I figure that so long as the Islamic Republic fails, the successor should be an improvement. Rajavi’s past 70, and was one of the student leaders who worked to remove the shah.

    I’m thinking that Pahlavi might be the better of the two – but either way, we would be looking at an Iran that would probably step out of being the world’s largest financier of terror operations. Definitely a chance for a better world.

    It’s interesting to note that two-thirds of Iran’s mosques are empty after 47 years as an Islamic Republic, and how many have been torched in the past month or so. It looks to me as if an educated population becomes more secular after they have lived under a theocracy.

    So hopefully the mullahs will go down, and some more moderate muslim rulers will step on stage. The mullahs have pretty well bankrupt and dewatered the country, so whoever takes over is going to have his or her hands full fixing the country.

  • I’m not certain what the long-term outcome of the Minneapolis mess will be. I do see a short-term outcome of another government shutdown. Another shutdown will put the camera on congressional arguments and take it away from fraud, Somalis, ICE, deportations, demonstrations and the like.

    I’m still remembering the drill – don’t go to stupid places, don’t do stupid things with stupid people. We’ve seen news of two people dying that would have never been shot had they followed this simple rule. And the deportations keep happening – and legally should continue.

    There are many examples of illegal immigration that I can understand, even justify. That doesn’t mean that coming into the US without dotting all the ‘i’s” and crossing all the “t’s” is legal. Misdemeanor or felony, it is still a crime. And I agree that we have so many laws that it is probably difficult to go through the day without breaking one. But I want to get back to talking about stupid.

    First of all, stupid is not confined to one side in the Minneapolis confrontations. An appeals court ruling is still out there that says it’s OK to discriminate against the candidate with the highest IQ when you’re hiring cops. Not saying that all cops are dumb – but when you can hire the stupidest, sooner or later you probably will. Showing up at a demonstration and confronting the ICE guys when you’re wearing a Sig isn’t the best of all decisions – and dumping a magazine into a guy who has been disarmed isn’t an example of quality thinking. There is Stupidity on both sides – and it’s a fatal sort of stupidity (and we’ll leave the cop whose finger was bitten off out for now.)

    As the map above shows, there are at least a dozen states where ICE has detained more people than in Minnesota. I’m looking at the stupidity – and perhaps we need another caveat: Don’t vote for stupid people. I am certain that brighter Democrats exist in Minnesota than Tim Walz. I suspect Jacob Frey is one of them – but that’s a fairly low hurdle. Minneapolis likely has brighter Democrat bulbs than Frey – though I am not sure a bright person would want the job of Mayor of Minneapolis.

    Perhaps the warning phrase should be “Don’t follow the advice of Stupid politicians, go to Stupid places with Stupid people doing Stupid things. It works for me. I hate to think that Stupid people, doing Stupid things in Minneapolis can mess up the whole country – but I think it will.

    As a point of clarification – you don’t need to have a low IQ to do stupid things. It may help, but it isn’t a requirement. A high IQ makes it possible to not just develop Keynesian Economic Theory, but to misapply it – but that is a topic for another day. Today, my money is on another government shutdown. Somehow, I don’t expect the funding bills to have smooth sailing when the Senate goes back to work at the end of the month.

  • A Nation of Immigrants

    The thing that makes a nation of immigrants successful is getting high quality immigrants. I recall a quotation without an author – “The coward never started, the weak died on the way, only the strong survived.” When I hunted an author, I found only a recent book – so I’ll stay with author unknown. In a very real, but incomplete way, it describes immigration to America.

    My mother-in-law came to the US from Germany – and went to Germany in WWII as a Soviet physician (specifically a psychiatrist). She came in fairly broke – but with paperwork attesting to her education and experience. Von Braun came in with some questionable associations with the Nazis, but he was one of the world’s top rocket men (admittedly, the Soviets got the best guys on rocket fuel). The idea at the time was to pick very well qualified immigrants. Einstein was a German-born Jew of Ashkenazi heritage. Enrico Fermi, born in Rome, a naturalized American citizen. I still have a screwdriver that belonged to Stanislaus, and a statue from his wife – Polish peasants, they brought skills in welding, machining and sewing with them through Ellis Island. The US gave extra points for coming from the right hand side of the bell curve.

    And immigration changed our ethnicity – by 1820, the majority of immigrants from Britain were Irish. With the potato famine, America became more Irish – then by the end of the 19th Century, increasing numbers from the region we know as Germany. The concept of the melting pot. Those early Irish immigrants came with strong backs and a work ethic. They may not have been the most intellectually gifted – but their work ethic placed them on the right hand side of the bell curve.

    There’s an irony in looking at the side of the bell curve on which the immigrant starts – the standard bell curve is always shown with the lower numbers (below average) on the left and the higher numbers on the right. When we had limited numbers of immigrants, we gave preference to immigrants from the far right side of the bell curve.

    I don’t like the Right/Left descriptors of political stances, largely because I see little difference between Hitler’s management and Stalin’s. Yet when I look at immigration policies that will improve or harm the makeup of our country, the extreme right of the bell curve – be it intelligence, education, professional qualifications, health – was the spot that got the prospective immigrant points for entry.

    It was in the southwest where I encountered an immigrant who had crossed the river during the Villa days, about 75 years before I met him. He was there for his great-granddaughter’s graduation with an associate of applied sciences in Civil Tech. I had coached her through Statics and Dynamics, and she insisted that I was the reason she graduated. This little old man – barely five feet, and in his nineties explained to me how wonderful the United States is: “Here, my granddaughter is a college graduate. That would never have happened if I had stayed in Mexico.” We don’t think often enough of how the opportunities for success are so much greater in the US than most other countries.

  • Voting Yourself In

    After the shah was overthrown, the Iranians had a choice. They could vote for a monarchy or they could vote for an Islamic republic. The vote came out for an Islamic Republic, and it’s on the 47th year.

    We’re seeing some major demonstrations as the Iranians work at getting out of the Islamic Republic. The problem is probably written larger there – the 75 cent word to describe the Islamic Republic is theocracy. We’ve heard the Ayatollah denouncing the protesters as ‘Enemies of God.’ In our British history, King James (yep-him of the King James Version) was the last Brit King who totally believed that he ruled by divine right.

    One of the problems of democracy is that you can vote yourself into something you have to shoot your way out of. Forget the dangling preposition – I really don’t know a way to say it better and more grammatically correct. The problem with shooting your way out is that authoritative regimes try to keep a monopoly on the guns. The Iranians – people whose parents and grandparents voted them into the Islamic Republic – want out. The government has the guns.

    We are not always offered clear, good choices in an election. The record shows that 98% of the voting Iranians chose the Islamic Republic. Then they knew of the problems with the Shah. Now they know the problems associated with the Islamic Republic. They’re trying to demonstrate their way out because they can’t vote or shoot their way out. Their choice, though they did not realize it, was between a crap salad and a crap sandwich.

    We can’t sneer at their 1979 choice – out past three elections have only been a choice of the lesser evil. I voted against Hilary Clinton. I voted against Joe Biden. At the bottom, my decision was made on the second amendment – push comes to shove, our founding fathers wrote the ability to shoot your way out into our constitution. The people we see demonstrating and dying in Iran don’t have that right. Few nations do.

    Should the Iranian people be successful, I have a hunch we will see a return to Zoroastrianism. Two thirds of Iran’s mosques are closed. The experience of living in an Islamic Republic seems to have turned off the appeal of Islam. Before the Iranians took to the streets, they quit going to the mosques and answering the call to prayer.

    You can vote yourself into a government that forces you to shoot your way out. James Madison is credited with writing the second amendment. So far we haven’t needed it – but we’ve seen a lot of attempts (and some of them successful) to infringe on the right to bear arms. The second amendment is now the strongest it has been in my lifetime – because of a man who received my vote but not my support in 2016 and the people he appointed to the Supreme Court.

    Thinking about the Iranians, again I remember Terence McSwiney and hope his view is correct:


  • A Few Charts and Trends

    And, from Hey Jackass – Chicago Killings

  • Water reaches its maximum density at 39.2 degrees Fahrenheit. Then it sinks, displacing less dense water that then moves to the surface. Out in the middle, Dickey Lake is about 70 feet deep (74′ at the deepest point). My shallow pond quickly cools to 39.2 degrees F throughout, then further cooling at the surface makes the water less dense, so the surface water stays in place and ice forms quickly across the pond.

    The same process exists in Dickey Lake – but the greater depth and volume of water challenges a warm winter to chill the entire lake to 39.2F. The water escalator continues to move the dense water toward the bottom, releasing warmer water for the surface – while ground temperature doesn’t warm the water significantly in the summer, it does provide a small amount of warming in the winter, but not important.

    The ice across Dickey Lake, and which day the lake freezes is basically controlled by the simple fact that water reaches its maximum density at 39.2 degrees Fahrenheit. As the ice melts in the spring, that heavier, warmer water sinks away from it.

  • Watching Iran

    I’ve watched Iran since I first read the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam – though Omar’s lines stressed Nishapur and not Tehran. I watched those 444 days of the embassy takeover – an event that left Jimmy Carter tarnished and ended with Reagan’s inauguration. I listened to people who explained the long shot nature of sending Navy helicopters across the desert for a hostage rescue.

    I’ve dealt with a few radical Islamists disrupting classes – and many more decent Muslims. Because of the balance of people, I’m hoping that the ordinary Iranian in the street somehow overcomes the ayatollahs. Yet bare hands against machineguns seems like trying to overwhelm radical Islam with bodies – and it reads like they may do it.

    Airpower and cruise missiles seem like a poor choice of weaponry to support street demonstrations – asking Donald Trump for help is good, but he doesn’t have the tools where they are needed.

    Yet I remember reading of Terence MacSwiney – Lord Mayor of Cork, arrested for sedition in 1920. Sinn Fein all the way.

    My hope is that he is still correct.

  • The Quality of Numbers

    Not all numbers are suitable for math, yet we can still use them. Section, Township and Range allow us to find a location on a map, or travel to a specific location. It’s usually expressed in terms Like T37W R25N S19 – which translates to Township (36 Square Miles) 37 W (west of the point of origin) Range 25 North (of the point of origin, section 19. That’s a numeric system that has been with us since 1785 – we have had the rectangular coordinate system longer than we’ve had the Constitution. At the northwest corner of the state, it’s pretty easy to use. Down by Virginia City, around the point of origin, you have to be real careful about the N,S,E and W. I found myself off by six miles a couple times when I got careless there. For those who can’t handle that system, we have street names and numbers. There are still some advantages to street numbers – on Fortine Creek Road, the street numbers show distance from the railroad track crossing at Trego.

    In some cases – social security numbers, for example – the number exists only as an identification. When I couldn’t get decent data on migration, I started using U-Haul rental rates as a substitute. For example, renting a U-Haul 15′ truck from Los Angeles to Eureka shows up as $4,817. Taking the truck back from Eureka to LA is $1,112. I can’t turn that into precise migration data – but I have no problem inferring that there is a lot more migration from Los Angeles to northwest Montana than the other way around. It’s valid – but I have had people dismiss the conclusions because the data is not adequately precise for them. For me, U-Haul provides a great resource on migration. I can find more specific numbers – but not as current. So we have numbers that are only useful as identifiers, and we have numbers that are useful in determining locations, and I can even use U-Haul prices to determine migration trends (and in this application I have had the mathematically illiterate question my conclusions).

    Ordinal numbers show position in a list – or first, second, third in a contest. My street address shows not just my position on the street, it also shows the distance from the railroad crossing at Trego. The U-Haul prices show that there is a lot more migration from Los Angeles to NW Montana than vice-versa. There are a lot of times when I can’t get perfect data – but I can get usable data. Usable data beats non-existent data.

    In the movie “Tombstone” Doc Holiday describes gambling: “Poker’s an honest trade – only a sucker bucks the tiger.” There are different significant numbers in various forms of poker. In draw poker, where the hand is not seen until the end of the game, the odds have been calculated, published and frequently memorized. In five card stud, where a single card is concealed and the next four are dealt one at a time, face-up, you can develop a rough estimate of each hand’s statistical probability. Draw poker is an honest trade – stud poker even more so – it is a statistician’s game (I ignore the psychological aspects of the game). The numbers have a different quality when four cards in each hand are visible.

    There are people who think they aren’t good at math – I think that they were taught by people who didn’t share all of the wonderful ways to use numbers. Of course, I am the guy who used a rather large set of loaded dice to help teach statistics. One of my former students asked where the dice were when he visited campus, and I explained my daughter had taken them with her when she moved to study at USD. His comment still puzzles me – “I guess that she doesn’t call home for money very often.” Language can be as confusing as numbers – and, as Doc Holiday said, “Poker’s an honest trade.” Dice usually are – but I guess most teachers don’t use loaded dice.

  • You probably don’t recall Robert Treat Payne, but most of us have seen his name, high among the signatures on the Declaration of Independence. So far as I can find out, he was the only man who signed the Declaration who had been to Greenland. I suspect that one out of fifty-six stood as the highest proportion of American legislators who had been to Greenland for some time.

    Robert Treat Payne – entered Harvard at age 14, graduated in 1749, just as his father went broke. He spent a year working as a teacher, and by 1750 went to sea – where he reached Greenland, Europe and the southern colonies. He decided a sailor’s life was not for him, studied law, and was admitted to the bar in 1757. I cannot connect Payne with any efforts to bring Greenland into the United States – though I can show a convoluted connection with an attempt to claim Tasmania for France. (The connection is there, but no argument that convinces me Payne was involved in the untimely attempt) In 1770, he was one of the prosecutors in the Boston Massacre case.

    If you look at Paine’s biography, it seems obvious that he favored independence for the United States . . . and equally obvious that he didn’t want to return to the sea or to Greenland.

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