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I noticed a chart of the top ten oil producing countries ( https://blazingcatfur.ca/ )
It says a lot – first that the US is still the largest producer. Increasing the prices will make new wells more likely. Admitted, the current administration has made some reductions in areas to drill, but political administrations can change rapidly. Looking at the numbers, this one can change even faster than experience shows us.
Brazil’s population is a little past 210 million – it isn’t likely that Brazil will be a major exporter. China’s population is so large that they will be importing from Iran and Russia. Iran’s population is around 82 million – their domestic demand, and their oil field’s aged machinery makes them a poor spot to increase production significantly. As I look at population and production, Saudi, Iraq, the Emirates and Kuwait still are the players where domestic use is small enough to make them the decision makers again. Russia has a limited market and the Ukraine invasion problem. A 5 or 6 percent increase in the US and Canada can turn things around. My Talon likes high octane – and it is costing more than ever to fill its tank. I have a hunch that the economic picture is going to increase American production.
Of course, if it doesn’t, the new timing belt and new tires will make the old Yugo practical again.
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Don’t take this wrong – I’m old enough that I taught at TSJC when the only surgeon in the US performing transexual surgery was Stanley Biber at Mount San Rafael hospital – across the Purgatory and downstream a bit from the college. My colleague down the hall described the most horrifying part of a motorcycle accident that left him with a broken pelvis was seeing Dr. Biber walk in just as the anesthetist was putting him under. The first transexual I encountered was on campus in the early eighties. College athletics had nothing to do with it back then. It didn’t matter when I retired and left the academy.
Still, I think back on the last transexual student assigned to me. A wonderful kid, a great human being, struggling to find a place. He didn’t fit with the conservative black Christian church where he was raised. Being gay wasn’t quite right for him. Deciding to try life as a transexual was where he was at as he left SDSU and I retired. I haven’t heard from him in four or five years – but I hope his life is easier and less stressful. There are plenty of social norms in this world to pain my students – but I hope the transition from he to she left her with a less strained life than he had.
Thinking about sports – at Trinidad, I discovered Service Rifle competition. I have shot matches with the 1903A3, the Garand, and with a borrowed AR. I never finished in the bottom half – my best showing was 6th place – but you don’t see men trying to shoot Service Rifle matches as women. Might have something to do with the 2021 winner – SSG Amanda Elsenboss – NRA Service Rifle National Champion, with a score of 2386-133X. She was also 2021 High Power National Champion, and High Woman and High National Guard in Service Rifle. Some of our best shooters are women, and I can lose as badly to them in blue jeans as anything else.
Still, it’s been about 40 years since I rode across Raton Pass for my introduction to the High Power competition. I had a borrowed AR, and I needed the match on record to qualify for the Garand. My first introduction to the really good shooters was Metallic Silhouette, in Havre, where you got points by knocking over steel chickens, pigs, turkeys and rams at unholy distances. Renata still has a second metal from that era – there were only a few women competing. I didn’t take home anything but empties. But High Power, Service Rifle – they don’t care. Men, women all shoot the same targets at the same ranges. I have shot against Olympic competitors and Distinguished Riflemen. And lost to them.
From what I have seen, there are some top female shooters in the National Guard. The Guard has a little more flexibility with their MOS – and it shows. And if anyone thinks that the shooting sports aren’t real collegiate sports, I’d like to remind them that Montana State’s outstanding athlete was a short aggie from Carter, Montana. Four time All-American. Did it all with a 22. The only Olympic athlete ever to win a medal in all three Olympic rifle events. Lones Wigger, Jr. Never met the man, though we shared friends and locations.
So, as I’ve watched Lia Thomas setting new swimming records as a woman, I’ve been wondering about the sports where there is an advantage to one sex or another. I suppose that a tiny transman might be able to salvage a gymnastics career when she grew too tall for the women’s sports. I can’t quite understand it, but I do remember realizing that I was too big to be a jockey at 10.
I watch the news about Thomas setting new records as a swimmer – and I see news about pain. Pain to the women who can’t win when the rules are changed, and the pain that I saw in a transexual student who wasn’t find a place to fit in well with the world.
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It feels a bit odd to be asking “When was the last time there was an election?” about something local. As a kid, I sort of assumed that elections happened everywhere in our country, as scheduled, and it was only foreign countries that lacked elections.
Unfortunately, it’s a question worth asking. About the Trego School Board, certainly. Last year, we were writing about vacant school board positions, and the need to get an application in to the school clerk, for an election to be held in May. That’s what should happen (every year).
What actually happens (and not just on the Trego School Board- look at your Lincoln Electric Cooperative Ballot) is that there are as many (or less) candidates as open positions. With everyone running unopposed, there’s no need for an election, and candidates are elected “by acclamation”.
Regarding the school board- a reminder:
Any person qualified to vote in a district is eligible for the office of trustee. However, there are restrictions on who may hold office. A trustee may not be employed in any capacity by the trustee’s own school district (with the exception of officiating athletic competitions under the auspices of the Montana Officials Association). The trustee candidate may be related to a school or county employee
-SCHOOL ELECTION HANDBOOK
No person convicted of a felony is eligible to hold office until final discharge from state supervision.While one of the risks is of running for a board (or public office) is that you might win- it really would be nice to have an election. After all, without one, we can’t even vote against someone, let alone for them!
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It’s at least 50 years ago that Bob Brown and I listened attentively to Matt Himsl in Kalispell, as the old politician took out the sacred cow of the value of civil service, elegantly put it to death, and delivered it to the grill as he explained what Montana had lost by going to civil service instead of a spoils system.
I was there only because I was with Bob, who was a young politician with a lot of potential. People like Bob, and a lot of folks have voted for him. Suffice to say, my success has never been because of popular votes. Anyway, we learned that there was another side to the spoils system.
Fifty years back, there were Republicans in Flathead County, and Lincoln County was dominated by Unions and Democrats. Lots of Unions, lots of Democrats. Himsl had been elected to the house and senate from Flathead, and was one of the politicians who was respected from both sides.
Anyway, as I recall the lesson, one of the important aspects of Montana’s Spoils System was the state monopoly on liquor sales. Each party had a qualified liquor store manager on hand. If the Republicans got the governorship, the local Republican party moved into managing the liquor store. If the Dems won, a dem wound up with 4 years employment. This wound up with some middle-of-the-road folks working hard for the parties. As I’ve watched the extremes take over party leadership on both left and right, I’ve often thought Matt Himsl may have been absolutely correct. The center may be a lot more likely to hold when the local committee folks are involved in politics for the job instead of for the ideology.
I’ve wondered how far it went – I don’t believe that there was ever a Democrat Highway Patrol and a Republican Highway Patrol, though I have heard of counties where the Sheriff was elected and his opponent became undersheriff for twenty or thirty years.
I think Himsl wasn’t so concerned about a “deep state” developing as he was concerned about a political system that kept the center involved in politics. The folks who could play political games all day long, then have a couple of drinks together in the evening afterward. Bob can do that. I’m more likely to call an SOB a son of a bitch – and if you do it often enough you’re going to lose votes.
There’s never been any doubt that Bob’s a Republican – even when he wrote of his preferences for Hillary over Trump. On the other hand, I’ve had Republicans identify me as a Democrat and the next day had Democrats not just call me a Republican, but a damned Republican. Nobody gets run over so often as the guy who wanders over both sides of the road.
I have a hunch Matt Himsl would have liked Ronald Reagan – the man who said, “The person who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is a friend and an ally – not a 20 percent traitor.” I think Bob, like Himsl and Reagan, wouldn’t regard me as a 20 percent traitor.
In elementary school, I learned that the creation of Civil Service eliminated the abuses of the Spoils System. I listened to my father, who explained that voting was discouraged among Navy officers – that they served the government, not the party. I don’t believe he voted until he had retired. I tried to live so that as the state demographer, I was equally accessible and trusted by both Democrat and Republican legislators.
I learned a lot from one afternoon with Matt Himsl.
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Everything that has been hibernating or dormant for the winter will soon be active again- this means bears (it’s time to start watching for them) and wasps (get the traps up early!)
Read what local biologist Tim Thier has to say about bears- it may be from last year, but it’s still relevant, and excellent!
Bear Hibernation (Part I)
People are fascinated by bears for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is their ability to hibernate. Imagine an animal much like people in many ways, being able to crawl into a den for 5-6 months and remain there, without eating, drinking, urinating or defecating, the entire time. As if that wasn’t…
Keep readingBear Hibernation Part II
While I was working on black bears in the Yaak for my Masters degree, I had the pleasure of cooperating with Dr. Ralph Nelson from the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. Dr. Nelson was studying hibernation in bears for a variety of human-related reasons, not the least of which was to assist NASA with sending…
Keep readingBear Hibernation Part III
Black bear dens in northwest Montana come in a variety of types. The most common den consists of where a large tree toppled over years ago, bringing up a large amount of soil with the roots. Black bears will hollow out an area under the fallen tree where the trunk meets the roots. Usually, these…
Keep readingAnd a reminder- it isn’t just time to start trapping wasps, it’s also important to consider what they are eating. The best bait will vary throughout the year, the same as the wasp diet will.
Learn about wasps, and when to trap them (and with what)
The time to start trapping wasps is now.
While winter isn’t quite done with us yet, we’ve had a good period of warmth recently. Wasps, as well as bears, are waking from their winter hibernation. I’ve seen a few queen paper wasps scouting for new nesting sites. With this in mind, if you want to control wasps in or around your property, the…
Keep readingWasp control
I’d wanted to talk about how to read wasp body language this week, but that’ll be postponed. I couldn’t persuade any individuals to do threat displays this week – all live wasps were well-mannered, despite extreme invasion of their personal space. Most of the wasps I’ve seen around Trego are Polistes paper wasps. We have…
Keep readingPaper Wasp Body Language
If you know what signs to look for when you meet a wasp, it’s easy to avoid being stung. Have you ever been buzzed by a bee or a paper wasp? They dive bomb you, fly close to your face, even collide with you, but without stinging? Those were probably sentries for a nest, trying…
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Definitions change – sometimes quickly, sometimes not so quickly. Sometimes the folks who change definitions do it deliberately, wanting to deceive. Now the term “Progressive” has changed a couple of times . . . or perhaps I could say was developed around 1900, then:
“The word “progressive” comes to us from the early twentieth century, when leftists like US Presidents Teddy Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and Woodrow Wilson used it to portray themselves as agents of progress. History textbooks refer to the period during which these three men ran the government (1901 to 1919), as the “Progressive Era.” Most modern textbooks reflect the leftist bias of their authors by framing this period as a time when enlightened leaders used the power of government to promote “social justice.”1 The other side of the story, generally downplayed by history professors and other leftists, is the way the original “Progressive” politicians trampled on the Constitutional principle of checks and balances, and ushered in an era of unprecedented government power.”
Classical liberalism is a political ideology and a branch of liberalism that advocates free market and laissez-faire economics; civil liberties under the rule of law with an emphasis on limited government, economic freedom, and political freedom. Sounds a lot more like today’s definition of a libertarian.
The Urban Dictionary defines “politically liberal“
A set of political beliefs which should focus on stressing the following:|
-Social government programs seeking to improve the quality and equality of life such as Health care and Welfare
-Heightened strength of federal government to keep differing state governments close enough together to avoid conflict
-Protection of Constitutional rights of ALL people (even those who are not politically liberal)Unfortunately, it is now also known for the following:
-Anti-religious zealotry seeking to censor any mention of God, thus restricting free speech, but only for religious individuals.
-Anti-conservative bigotry that viciously mock and criticize conservatives simply because they have different beliefs.
-Radical homosexual propaganda that makes anyone who disagrees with “Homosexuality is natural, healthy and good for society” out to be some sort of criminal.I don’t know how to explain to my friends that I’m politically liberal but not a total lying bitch like Rachel Maddow or other famous liberals.
by TruthInText May 25, 2010”This definition probably shows why the progressives are returning to politics. A century is enough time for a word’s definition to be forgotten. On the other hand, a conservative is supposed to be someone who wants to preserve existing social institutions – though the Urban Dictionary describes it:
A Political phrase that has been thrown around so much that it has lost its meaning and has many people who pretend to be it(Just as with the word Liberal).
Conservatives generally believe in less government and a government that only steps in when necessary.
On Economic Issues, Conservatives generally believe in low taxes, a flat income tax(seeing that it is the only equal and constitutional way to conduct a tax) and financial independence. They believe that a person’s money belongs to the person, not the government. They believe in less government spending and fewer government programs. They are against welfare(both Corporate and Private) and intervention in the economy. These beliefs are generally known as “Fiscal Conservatism“.
On Social Issues, Conservatives believe in interfering only when someone’s constitutional rights are at risk. This is why many Conservatives are Pro-Life(they see abortion as an attack on a human being’s constitutional right to live). Conservatives are against “Big Brother” telling you how to live your life.
Many Conservatives believe in an idea known as “Peace Through Strength.” An idea that revolves around military strength and the power of intimidation to avoid war.
Conservatives are usually identified with the Republican Party, although in recent years, the Party has broken into a civil war between Conservatives and Neo-Conservatives(Not to be confused with Conservatives). And, recently, Neo-Conservatives have began to use the term “conservative” to refer to their own beliefs. However, some prominent Conservatives, such as John McCain, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson, have risen and popularity as well as the ideas behind True Conservatism.
John McCain and Ron Paul are Conservatives, Rush Limbaugh is not.
By David N. Dunnsworth September 19, 2008Confusing, isn’t it? When the definitions change, it gets hard to tell which SOB is lying to you.
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Astronaut Harrison H. Schmitt. During the mission, Schmitt unintentionally breathed in some lunar dust and for the rest of the day exhibited signs similar to hay fever or an allergy — sneezing and watery eyes. In 1972, the NASA doctors thought he was allergic to the Moon.
Since there are only a dozen people who have walked on the moon, this is an example of “interesting, but not statistically relevant” data. The small sample pretty much guarantees that we can’t project the data and accurately state “8.33% of people are allergic to moondust.” It looks like good data – it is good data – but the sample size is too small.
This site shows some spurious correlations – the one I used most was the number of sociology doctorates correlation with commercial space launches,
Theifod.com: An important lesson from bullet holes in planes offers another example –
The article is worth reading – but for those folks who don’t want to click the link, here’s an excerpt as a teaser:
“The Army was planning on adding armor strategically to the parts of the plane that tended to get most riddled with bullets and asked Wald to help them determine exactly where the armor should go.
Wald had a different view. He said the armor shouldn’t go where the bullet holes are. Instead, it should go where there aren’t holes. His insight was to realize that when considering all the planes flying missions, the bullet holes should be evenly distributed — there is no reason why anti-aircraft guns fired from thousands of feet away would hit just the wings and fuselage. It is the planes that didn’t return that were hit in the engines and that’s where the armor should go.
Wald’s insight was to identify a logical fallacy called “survivorship bias.”
Survivorship bias “is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility.” Source. Survivorship bias is commonly overlooked and can lead to bad decisions. Keeping in mind the bullet hole story is a powerful mental model for making better decisions.”
Read the whole thing – statistics and correlations are a lot easier to understand if you know the places they can’t be expected to provide answers.
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Around this time last year, we looked at tick born illnesses (did you know they can cause a Red Meat Allergy?), noted some damage that occurred to the TFS Community Hall, and learned a fair bit about the Trego School Building, including an examination of the Facilities Report done by the state, recently referenced in a discussion about replacing Eureka’s Elementary School via the construction of a new High School (reported by the Tobacco Valley News).
Tick diseases in Montana
Spring has sprung, and our first ticks are out and about.When folks start talking about illnesses transmitted by ticks, the first to come up almost always seems to be Lyme Disease. While Lyme Disease is the most common tick-borne disease among Montanans, you don’t need to worry about picking it up around here – it…
Damage to the Civic Center
This newest hole isn’t the only damage to the entry- that post alongside the ramp is pretty twisted as well. It’s a common place to back vehicles up to when events are happening, and that puts the entrance at risk of damage. Trego’s Civic Center is due some expensive repairs- with insurance premiums already high,…
Trego School -Why have a building reserve fund?
As we wrote about earlier this year, the school board had decided to use a permissive levy to establish a building reserve fund. One of the requirements of the permissive levy is that “The projects must be listed and the priority for projects are listed on the Facility Condition Report under their deficiency categories. Those…
Trego School-More About the Building
Since the state was kind enough to go through every K12 school in the state (back in 2008) and evaluate the condition of the buildings, there’s a fair bit of information to play with. The general facts- as taken from the Facilities Condition Inventory. Building Year Constructed (according to the state’s report) Deficiency Ratio Renewal…
Litter vs Artifacts?
If you leave trash sitting around long enough (about 50 years), something mysterious happens and it stops being litter (punishable by a $200 fine) and becomes an archaeological resource which if you remove from federal land could lead to a $500 fine and six moths in jail. What’s the difference? Litter is, according to the…
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We have an update from the community hall– as follows:
Trego, Fortine, Stryker Community Hall (TFS Community Hall)
Announcing Free Community Internet Access and Public Phone
Trego— March 12, 2022 — As of today, free Wi-Fi is available at the TFS Community Hall for our community and visitors. This area is void of cellular service and having accessible Wi-Fi coverage and phone will benefit the community by allowing communication where there previously was none. With generous support and guidance from InterBel in Eureka, this service is now available to anyone in the Trego area.
Safety and Convenience
There is very little cellular service in the Trego, Fortine, and Stryker area and this means that travelers through the area are on their own if they need to reach family and friends, get directions or have an emergency and need services. By having a publicly available land line and wi-fi that enables wi-fi calling on cell phones, the Hall is providing a valuable service to the community. There is a sign at the hall near the phone that outlines how to connect to Wi-Fi and enable wi-fi calling. Once this is done, users can reach friends and neighbors, contact emergency services or 1-800 numbers. No long-distance calling is permitted. In addition, users will be able to access the internet for directions or any other purpose from the TFS Hall Parking lots.
Product/Program Availability
The phone will be located in the alcove at the front of the TFS Community Hall and is free for use for those without mobile phones or who cannot enable wi-fi calling. It is available 24/7. The wi-fi password is TheHall1947 and is available to anyone wanting to connect to the internet.
The TFS Community Hall hosts many community programs and with the support of InterBel, having access to phone and internet during these programs makes them far more efficient and enjoyable. Currently the TFS Community Hall is available for rent for fundraisers and private events, they host a weekly Kids Play Day on Wednesdays at 10:30am, and distribute food on Fridays at 10:30 to over 150 families a week, and host a monthly community dinner. All of these programs are free to the community. The TFS Community Hall is exploring other programs and uses for the building. If you would like to host an event or learn more you can contact them through Facebook or any board member.
Annual Meeting
The Annual meeting for the TFS Community Hall is March 25th at 5:30pm, free dinner will be provided by the TFS Community Hall and it is open to anyone who owns property in School District 53.
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I read the headline “61% of Americans paid no federal income taxes in 2020, Tax Policy Center says.” The obvious correlation is that only 39% of Americans paid federal income taxes for 2020. The number has several political implications.
The third bullet point down read “The main reasons for the spike — high unemployment, large stimulus checks and generous tax credit programs — will largely expire after 2022.” I guess that means we can expect to return to normal next year. So I searched to find out what normal was in 2018 and 2019.
I came up with a headline that said “45% of tax filers will owe nothing in federal income taxes this year.” Close enough – that translates to 55% of the folks filing taxes pay taxes. Maybe 4 years back over half of Americans paid taxes. If the predictions of stimulus checks and generous tax credits expiring are correct we may get back to over half the population being taxpayers. This chart, taken from ITEP shows the share of taxes paid by quintiles, then breaks down to the top 1%.
It’s a model from 2019 – so it is probably based on 53 to 55% of Americans paying taxes. With the label “Total Taxes” it probably includes state and local taxes, social security, etc.
The next chart also comes from ITEP, and provides a good visualization.
How nice it would be if everyone were in the top 40 percent – but that, of course, would get us into the gini equation, and I was the only one in my department that made a point of calculating that equation.
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